Is Obama Ahead in Indiana? A Closer Look...

An Indianapolis Star poll actually has Obama AHEAD in Indiana, which I find wholly implausible- so I decided to take a closer, in depth look...

I do read an RSS feed of the Indy Star, and I find their reporting very respectable, as befits an MSA of 1,640,591 (33rd largest in US. Total pop of Indiana is 6,313,520. So Indianapolis has about 25% of the population of Indiana.

Ok so according to the poll, "Obama, the Democrat, holds a 54 percent to 40 percent advantage in Indianapolis." So 55% of 1.6 million is, 880,000 & 45% is 720,000. So that gives Obama about 160 thousand votes to play with.

Take out the Indy MSA and the rest of Indiana has about 4.6 million people. Let's say that McCain wins those votes but at a lower margin- say 52%. That 2.3 million votes for Mccain, and 2.2 for Obama. Well- actually that would make it pretty close. But won't McCain do better outside of Indianapolis? And won't Indianapolis continue to have lower voter turn out? Go Indianapolis, that's all I have to say.

I call bullshit on this poll- since the paper is from Indianapolis, I bet they overrepresented the turnout of metro Indy dwellers in their sample size. No way Obama wins this state.

(INDIANAPOLIS STAR)